[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N4W 7N13W 9N30W 5N40W 2S50W...THEN
ACROSS WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OFF THE COASTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
10W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 18W-30W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM EQ-12N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
LOUISIANA/SW MISSISSIPPI AND IS MOVING E ALONG THE N GULF COAST.
A 110-120 KT JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONTERREY MEXICO
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 250 MB AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
TO AT LEAST 130 KT OVER FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT. A DEEPENING 1006
MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF NEAR 29N84W AND IS
ACCELERATING NE AT ABOUT 20 KT WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SW TO
23N90W THEN INTO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND STATIONARY OVER E
MEXICO. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS UP TO 250
NM NW OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID CLEARING IS OCCURRING NW OF THIS
BAND AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S/UPPER 30S F
OVER SE TEXAS. ALSO...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER
PORTIONS OF E MEXICO FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 93W-102W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NE OF THE NE GULF LOW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND
THEN HAS SET UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTEND N OF 29N INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA...
ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI BUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE CAROLINAS NW OF THE WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO LIE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRIMARILY
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO SRN FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FARTHER N NEAR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF T.D. GAMMA IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND APPEARS
TO HAVE BEGUN DRIFTING ESE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SAME FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
ABSORB GAMMA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
BEEN OCCASIONALLY FORMING ON THE N SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT THERE IS
RELATIVELY LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM AND DRIER AIR
IS MOVING IN FROM THE E. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N69W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA
E OF 83W AND CREATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE HOVERING OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE ALSO FORMED N OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

ATLANTIC...
A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST
AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE
WARM SECTOR N OF 29N W OF 72W. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE LIES ALONG
70W AND WILL FORCE THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND HAVE A
DRAPING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT THEN
STALL FROM HISPANIOLA NEWD BY THU MORNING. FARTHER E...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N46W 20N40W AND IS SUPPORTING A
QUICKLY-DEEPENING 992 MB LOW NEAR 30N41W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S/SW TO 24N38W 15N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 37W-45W WHILE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FARTHER E FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
27W-40W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING E INTO MOROCCO WITH A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 32N10W 24N20W. A 110 KT JET LIES ON
THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MADEIRA AND THE
EASTERNMOST CANARY ISLANDS...AND WILL SEND INCREASED UPPER
MOISTURE FROM THE CNTRL ATLC TOWARDS THE NW COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
BERG



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