[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 85.5W...OR 85
NM N OF LIMON HONDURAS...AT 21/0300 UTC MOVING N 2 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. GAMMA IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE STILL OCCASIONALLY FORMING TO THE N FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-86W BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS BECOMING TOO
STRONG TO SUPPORT FUTURE ORGANIZATION. THE LAST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N28W 8N45W 5N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SIERRA LEONE FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 8W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 19W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 175 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER E
TEXAS AND IS DROPPING E/SE TOWARDS THE N GULF COAST. A 100 KT
JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONTERREY MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 250 MB AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST
130 KT OVER FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W MOVING NE ABOUT 15 KT WITH A COLD FRONT
DRAPED SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
STATIONARY OVER E MEXICO. THE STRONGEST NW WINDS...AND HENCE THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...ARE LOCATED UP TO 220 NM NW OF
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARE MARKED ALONG A BROKEN/
OVERCAST BAND OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE W TO
CNTRL GULF. RAPID CLEARING IS OCCURRING NW OF THIS BAND AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FALLING INTO THE 40S F OVER COASTAL
TEXAS. ALSO...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF E
MEXICO FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 94W-101W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE OF
THE NE GULF LOW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND THEN HAS SET UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 85W EXTENDING INTO THE W
ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE E
GULF AND FLORIDA LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER N NEAR GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS.

CARIBBEAN...
T.D. GAMMA HAS BECOME A SKELETON LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ONLY
A FEW TSTMS FORMING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE W OF GRAND CAYMAN.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE E. A
STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W AND CREATING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE HOVERING OVER THE FAR
SE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS UP TO
250 NM N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINA COAST
AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE
WARM SECTOR N OF 29N W OF 74W. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE LIES ALONG
72W AND WILL FORCE THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND HAVE A
WEAKENED VERSION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WATERS
MON NIGHT THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA NEWD BY THU MORNING.
FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 43W N OF 20N AND IS
SUPPORTING A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S/SW TO 26N40W 18N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 39W-44W WHILE MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FARTHER E FROM 15N-32N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO
MOROCCO WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 32N10W 24N22W. A 120 KT JET LIES
ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 35N24W TO 27N13W AND
WILL FORCE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INLAND OVER NW AFRICA.

$$
BERG


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net