[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 202047
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

GAMMA HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS
SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...BUT COULD
BE LESS THAN THAT BY NOW.  STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND PREVENT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. GAMMA IS LIKELY TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...OR ALMOST SURELY BY
TOMORROW.

GAMMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS THE CYCLONE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN 360/2.  LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AFTER WHICH A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD TAKE
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE SHALLOW BAM AND GFS MODELS. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT OR DISSIPATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 17.0N  85.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 17.4N  85.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N  85.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.6N  83.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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