[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA AT 19/2100 UTC IS NEAR 16.3N
85.2W ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY
AND ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.
GAMMA IS MOVING N AT 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GAMMA IS
UNDER 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR. THIS SHOULD NOT ALLOW GAMMA TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE
CENTER FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N25W 8N40W 8N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 28W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W
22N84W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO
E OF 92W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN
COAST W OF 95W.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER
DELAWARE IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS OVER THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF
JAMAICA IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF.  EXPECT...CONVECTION
OVER THE SE GULF...CUBA...AND S FLORIDA DUE TO T.S. GAMMA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GAMMA IS THE ONLY CONVECTION
NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR
16N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA.  MOISTURE DUE
TO GAMMA IS W OF 80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W.
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO GAMMA W OF 80W
AND N OF 17N THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N65W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 24N80W.  DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT.   A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
23N59W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N10W
26N20W 25N30W.  DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 50W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N48W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS CENTER TO
10N56W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 40W-45W.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-45W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 39N16W
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N16W.

$$
FORMOSA


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