[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA AT 19/1800 UTC IS NEAR
16.2N 85.2W OR ABOUT 190 NM/335 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY
AND ABOUT 275 NM/505 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.
GAMMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. GAMMA IS ALREADY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS
SHOULD NOT ALLOW GAMMA TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 14N82W 17N83W. THE CLOUD TOPS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN
81W AND 86W HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND
THEY HAVE BEEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY SHEAR.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N12W 4N25W 9N41W 9N52W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W AND 40W. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA ALSO IS UNDER THE 32N43W 6N42W
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH
OF 27N. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE NEXT EXPECTED DEEP
LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE TOWARD T.S. GAMMA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF INTERIOR MEXICO AND
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM T.S. GAMMA
STREAMS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN
300 TO 400 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO
WESTERN CUBA...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CUTTING INTO THE
DRY AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH
OF 15N WEST OF 80W IS RELATED TO T.S. GAMMA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EXISTS FOR THE BELIZE COAST FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD...AND IN MEXICO FROM THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER TO PUNTA
GRUESA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH CENTER IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 80W.
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA AROUND T.S. GAMMA...AND CLOUDINESS IS IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WEST OF 80W SOUTH OF THE HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W NEAR
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N66W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE EASTERN
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N87W NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE NORTHWEST OF 22N80W 24N75W 27N70W BEYOND 31N63W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A LOW CENTER NEAR 25N49W TO 19N54W TO 8N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS FROM 31N58W TO AN ATLANTIC 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
24N60W...TO 22N57W...CURVING TO 18N60W AND 18N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS FLOW COMES FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 32N43W 23N40W
16N40W 6N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND
46W. THE PRECIPITATION UNDER THIS RIDGE ALSO IS INCLUDED IN THE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND
40W. THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE IN AFRICA. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO 19N20W TO AFRICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SEEN FROM
19N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
31N12W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N20W TO 26N30W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N30W TO 28N38W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS DISTINGUISHED BY A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IN THIS
CLOUDINESS.

$$
MT


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