[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA AT 18/2100 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 85.6W
ABOUT 40 MILES...  65 KM...NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT
190 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.  IT
IS MOVING WNW AT 4 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  GAMMA IS A SLOW MOVING
TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
81W-87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 7N30W 8N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
10W-13W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
20W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
34W-37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 35W-41W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
25N80W 20N87W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS IS
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 27N.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE N OF 27N.
15-20 KT NE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH SW FLOW.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE
SE GULF WHERE OUTFLOW MOISTURE FROM GAMMA IS NOTED.  EXPECT MORE
DRIZZLE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN VICINITY OF FRONT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GAMMA IS THE ONLY CONVECTION
NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR
17N77W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA.  MOISTURE DUE
TO GAMMA IS W OF 80W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE W OF 80W DUE TO GAMMA... AND BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W. DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE ALONG THE
FRONT.   A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N58W.  A GALE IS LOCATED N OF THE LOW DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N18W 30N23W 29N34W. DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N51W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS
CENTER TO 10N57W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 40N18W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S TO 15N20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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