[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WHICH IS JUST EAST OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...AND THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS
RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 7N39W 10N50W 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. THE CLOUD
TOPS ARE BEING SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N EAST OF 30W...
WITH SHEARED CLOUD TOPS ALSO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 8N TO 13N
BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THIS AREA ALSO IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N77W TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W TO 20N92W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
TO 18N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 18N98W IN INTERIOR
MEXICO TO 25N100W AND 26N103W. GALE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 94W ENDING TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 20 DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT. TYPICAL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RELATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR OVER
THE WARM WATERS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...NORTHWEST OF 30N86W
26N90W 25N97W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER HIGH IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N83W IS JUST EAST OF THE
NICARAGUA COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER NEAR
24N55W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N69W. ABUNDANT
AMOUNTS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 14N60W 12N67W 13N73W 17N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST SOUTH OF 13N EAST OF
78W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ITCZ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY WINDS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N77W TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 66W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
CENTER NEAR 24N55W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
13N69W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WEST OF 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 24N52W LOW CENTER
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 24N52W TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE
RIDGE IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N TO 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THIS RIDGE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 50N FROM 14N NORTHWARD TO 31N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS MOVING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS EASTWARD TO
CENTRAL MOROCCO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN ABOUT
300 TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CIRCULATION.

$$
GR/MT

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