[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N81W. IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS
LOW CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER WATER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS
AREA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AT 1800 UTC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE
AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 76W-86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 5N40W 5N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 19W-23W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S MEXICO
ALONG 30N85W 25N90W 23N94W 19N96W 20N99W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ALONG THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS ALONG
20N99W 22N100W 27N103W.  VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS N WINDS 30 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 45 KT.  STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF THE FRONT HAS NORTHERLY 25-30 KT WINDS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS.  CONVECTION
IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCER.  CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
SEA W OF 75W.  SEE ABOVE.  THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W HAS MODERATE
SURFACE TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 66W-69W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 70W-74W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W.  THE BASE
OF A TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF
15N AND E OF 70W.  THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N AND E OF 70W HAS
WESTERLY FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND MORE CONVECTION WITH THE SW CARIBBEAN LOW OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER N
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N48W 23N48W 12N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
48W-52W...AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 43W-47W.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE E ATLANTIC.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 48W-52W.  A RIDGE IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-43W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N20W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS N OF 20N E OF 30W.  UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 10N-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W SUPPRESSING
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

$$
FORMOSA


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