[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161824
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY SEVEN AT 16/1500 UTC
IS NEAR 14.7N 73.8W...OR ABOUT 320 NM/595 KM SOUTHWEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 265 NM/485 KM
SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IT IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST ITS CLOSED
CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE
FOUND FROM 13.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. IT IS FORECAST TO
BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WHICH ALREADY IS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W. IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
11.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WHICH MAY HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT BY NOW...
HAVE BEEN MOVING INLAND IN EASTERN HONDURAS. OTHER SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W...INCLUDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS LOW CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS
IN THIS AREA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IF NECESSARY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N13W 6N20W 5N30W 5N40W 6N53W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM INLAND TEXAS AT 15/1800 UTC TO
A LINE NOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO EASTERN MEXICO NEAR
22N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N98W TO 24N100W AND
28N103W. THIS FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
WHICH RUNS ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL TEXAS
TO NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
29N100W TO 26N99W TO 23N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY SEVEN WITH ITS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE DEPRESSION ARE THE MAIN FEATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W ABOUT 140 NM SOUTH OF HAITI.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FOUND EVERYWHERE WEST OF
70W. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 16/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA ELSEWHERE EAST OF 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
MOSTLY IN THE WATERS NORTH OF VENEZUELA SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 66W
AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA FROM ITS BORDER WITH
COLOMBIA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST
OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29N49W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 33N47W TO THE LOW CENTER TO
24N56W TO 21N62W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS RIDGE ROUGHLY COVERS
THE AREA NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS...
NOW THROUGH 32N48W 25N48W 20N49W 13N53W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...
WESTWARD TO THE UNITED STATES...AND EASTWARD TO AFRICA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...
AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N19W JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N26W TO 11N25W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT


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