[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 71.4W AT
16/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 240 NM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF 13.5N
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-70.5W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N12W 7N25W 6N33W 9N52W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
20W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR 30N89W SW INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W THEN
NW OVER N MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH N
GALE FORCE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD E TO SE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE W ATLC
BY THU MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS THE REMNANTS SWING THROUGH S
FLORIDA ON FRI. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W.
THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN GIVING THE GULF FAIR
SKIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT TO THE NE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS THE GULF BY FRI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. AT THE
MOMENT...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY LOW
LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS PRECEDING THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE S BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO CUBA FROM THE S FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH
NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH
THE 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N80W TO GENERATE AN AREA OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
14.5N73W 16N81W TO 10N82W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...AND NE HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N81W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN THU PUSHING SW DRYING OUT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING
ON SAT...WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS MOISTURE LADEN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINING IN THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W EXTENDS A RIDGE N
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS W OF 50W. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
SHALLOW INVERSION IS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER
THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N47W SSW TO 22N53W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS THROUGH
32N46W 26N47W TO 17N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N FROM 34W-46W. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM JUST S OF GIBRALTAR SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N16W THEN S
TO 15N21W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FROM 16N-27N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER MAURITANIA AND THE
WESTERN SAHARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND NEAR THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS FROM 15W-23W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC AND IS SPLIT BY THE UPPER TROUGH/
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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