[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 70.2W AT
16/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 220 NM S OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
AREA FROM 12N-16.5N BETWEEN 64.5W-69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 6N30W 7N40W 9N50W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 22W-28W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/250 NM
N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS ARRIVED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING ACROSS
LOUISIANA INTO THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 30N93W INLAND OVER S TEXAS
JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE THEN NW OVER N MEXICO. RAIN/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH N GALE FORCE
WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE W ATLC ON THU THEN
WEAKEN AS THE REMNANTS SWING THROUGH S FLORIDA ON FRI. ELSEWHERE
AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS N
FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. THE UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN GIVING THE GULF FAIR SKIES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT TO THE SE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF BY
FRI. AT THE MOMENT...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS PRECEDING THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
UPPER HIGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W EXTENDS A RIDGE WNW
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH
THE 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N79W TO GENERATE AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N W OF 77W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND A LINE WITHIN 60 NM TRAILING E TO T.D.
TWENTY-SEVEN ALONG 14.5N. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH T.D. TWENTY-SEVEN WEAKENING. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THU PUSHING SW DRYING OUT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W EXTENDS A RIDGE N
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS W OF 50W. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
SHALLOW INVERSION IS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER
THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N45W SSW TO 21N55W WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH 50 TO 60 KT WINDS EXTENDS FROM 18N55W TO 21N44W THEN
FANNING OUT TO FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 33W-44W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W 25N59W TO 19N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 19N FROM 35W-46W. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER GIBRALTAR SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N16W
THEN S TO 15N22W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH FROM 15N-27N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER MAURITANIA AND
THE WESTERN SAHARA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS N TO OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THIS SAME TROUGH IS
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL JET ABOVE SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 KT FROM 20N35W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
16N17W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE ATLC
IS SPLIT BY THE UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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