[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN AT 15/2100 UTC IS
NEAR 14.8N 69.0W...OR ABOUT 260 MILES SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO
MOVING W 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  AIRCRAFT RECON FOUND A
POORLY-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION.  WLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT AS ALL OF THE TSTMS ARE ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION... FROM 13N-16.5N BETWEEN
65W-69W.  ALL COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS... THOUGH A WEAK LOW IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP ...
PROBABLY INCREASING THE WLY UPPER FLOW IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WAVE ALONG 34W/35W IS BEING DROPPED FROM THE
ANALYSIS.  THE FEATURE PREVIOUSLY TRACKED IS VERY SHALLOW AS
SHOWN BY MODEL AND CIMSS WIND FIELDS AND IS LIKELY JUST A WEAK
TROUGH IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 5N23W 7N35W 7N46W 5N53W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BIG CHANGES ARE HAPPENING IN THE W GULF AS A COLD FRONT BARRELS
INTO THE REGION... IN FAR SE TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 28N103W.
ALL SORTS OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE UP A THE SQUALL LINE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... THOUGH MUCH STRONGER N OF 31N.... WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COASTLINE N OF 27.5N
INTO SW LOUISIANA TO 93.5W.  FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING... WEAKEN ON THU... AND THE
REMNANTS PROBABLY SWING THROUGH S FLORIDA ON FRI.  GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE IN THE SW GULF.  FOR THE
MOMENT.. THE E GULF IS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER LAND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WATER... THANKS TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
UPPER-LEVEL SW WINDS COVER THE REGION... WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM SE TO NW AS AN UPPER HIGH HEADS EASTWARD OVER
THE NW BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH IS FANNING OUT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN... SHOVING THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NORTHWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA.  DIVERGENCE FROM THIS HIGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 15.5N BETWEEN
75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA... AND COULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N79W.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
LOW INTERACTS WITH TD 27.. WITH SOME MODELS NOW TRYING TO FOCUS
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND WEAKENING
THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  RIDGING FROM THE UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM E
NICARAGUA TO 14N70W ... WITH THE DEPRESSION TRYING TO GET UNDER
THE ERN FLANK OF THE HIGH.  A SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE LEAVES.  A LITTLE INFUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N
SHOULD DRY OUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOME TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE DAY IN THE WINDWARDS.  HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN E HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD THRU PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER PATTERN HAS SHIFTED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY... COMPRISED OF
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH REGIME.  FIRST RIDGE... MID/UPPER HIGH
REALLY...IS NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS CONTROLLING THE AREA W OF 65W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.  PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS ARE ACROSS THE ATLC N OF 24N FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD
TO AFRICA WITH A BREAK NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 32N47W 25N51W 21N60W DISSIPATING TO NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.  STRONG ELY WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY E
OF 70W WITH A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA CAUSING THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIFT/DIVERGENCE FROM A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG 31N46W 21N52W TO HISPANIOLA IS CAUSING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
38W-46W.  FLAT UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL W ATLC... RIDGING
UP IN A HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FASHION TO 15N43W BEYOND 31N37W WITH
BROKEN OVERCAST CIRRUS IS A LARGE AREA FROM N OF 16N BETWEEN
30W-47W.  WITHIN 180 NM E AND 420 NM W OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF
15N.  DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC  WITH AN UPPER LOW N
OF THE AZORES NEAR 31N16W... TROUGHING SSW THRU THE CAPE VERDES
TO NEAR 7N29W.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS MORE LIMITED THAN YESTERDAY.
TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E ATLC TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRADES ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
IN THE E ATLC... SLACKENING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
BLAKE

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