[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 66.4W AT
15/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW
AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES ON THE
EXTREME NW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOW CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 13.5N-15N
BETWEEN 65W-66.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION TO
THE SE S OF 13N TO JUST INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 62W-65.5W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 59W-62W
INCLUDING TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONTINUED STRONG CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD/S MOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASE ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG 32W/33W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS IS A VERY BROAD/WEAK WAVE WITH LOW AMPLITUDE CURVATURE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 11N78W. LOW IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N22W 7N43W 5N55W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-53W AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF BUT IS SLOWLY
RETREATING EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA SW TO 23N93W OVER THE W GULF. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE U.S. WHICH
HAS PLACED SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 24N81W WITH THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 88W. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE E GULF AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF
INTO THE W ATLC BY THU WITH STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DRIER AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE BEST WEATHER OVER THE
REGION EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND N TO 18N. FARTHER S...A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 11N78W IS
INTERACTING WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 69W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...HOWEVER...IS T.D. 27 OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR AND A STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE W ATLC. EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS W OF 50W AND THE SHALLOW
INVERSION IS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER THE
SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W 22N55W WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 50 TO 70 KT WINDS AT 250 MB...EXTENDING
ALONG 18N68W 22N45W 18N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS COLLOCATED
WITH THE JET...AND EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W 23N53W TO 19N66W N OF
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
175 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W 21N48W
THEN N TO BEYOND 32N43W. LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS NOW FROM OVER GIBRALTAR
SW ALONG 32N18W THEN S TO 15N28W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 17W-33W...WHILE
WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
TROUGH N OF 24N. THIS SAME TROUGH IS FORCING THE SAME
SUBTROPICAL JET ABOVE SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 80 TO
100 KT FROM 18N36W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 20N16W.

$$
WALLACE



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