[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W...
OR 150 NM W OF ST. LUCIA...AT 14/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 6 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES ON THE
EXTREME WRN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED FROM 12N-15.5N BETWEEN 60W-64W WITH
A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONTINUING SSE FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 59W-62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE ATLC FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 55W-60W. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ORINOCO DELTA IN NE VENEZUELA NWD
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO DOMINICA. SELECT RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS INCLUDE 5.47" IN BARBADOS...2.91" IN
DOMINICA...2.06" IN MARTINIQUE...AND 2.05" IN TRINIDAD. WITH THE
DEPRESSION'S SLOW MOVEMENT AND RECENT BURST IN TSTM ACTIVITY...
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WINDWARD/SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 30W S
OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ADDED BASED ON A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING NEAR THE AXIS BUT A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WAVE IS SHEARING THE TOPS OFF TO THE E. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK ROTATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED OVER WRN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
CONVERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE PACIFIC FLOWING NE.
TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 75W-83W...MAINLY OVER WATER.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO DUE TO A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED W OF
CARTAGENA COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N6W 7N13W 10N29W 6N48W 10N60W...
THEN ALONG 11N76W 9N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 40W-50W. CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RELATED TO
THE ADJACENT TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF...EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 27N94W OVER THE NW GULF THEN SSW
TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS STILL CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS OF THE U.S. WHICH HAS PLACED SWLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SW OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 23N84W WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE
LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF. A N/S CONVERGENCE LINE HAS SET UP OVER
THE W GULF FROM 18N95W TO 29N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY FAIR WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE E/CNTRL
GULF...AND ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SPREADING SE THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO FORCE DRIER
AIR SWD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE BEST WEATHER OVER THE
REGION EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA WWD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SWD TO 16N. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF HISPANIOLA
IS TRIGGERING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FARTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W AND A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N77W ARE INTERACTING WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
75W-84W. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CNTRL CARIBBEAN IS FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN A
LINEAR BAND FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-78W. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...HOWEVER...IS T.D. 27 OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR AND A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS W OF 50W AND THE SHALLOW
INVERSION IS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER THE
SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N51W 22N64W IS BOUNDED BY A
70 KT SWLY JET AT 250 MB...EXTENDING ALONG 21N63W 28N51W 32N48W.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS COLLOCATED WITH THE JET...AND ALSO EXTENDS
FARTHER SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS UP TO 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE ELSEWHERE SE OF THE FRONT FROM
19N-26N BETWEEN 48W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT W OF 60W ESPECIALLY OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE E ATLC WITH
THE AXIS NOW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 12N34W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NEAR THE TROUGH N OF 10N BETWEEN
20W-38W...WHILE WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING NEWD
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO W AFRICA. THIS SAME TROUGH IS SHEARING
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W.

$$
BERG


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net