[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 63.2W AT
14/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM W OF ST. LUCIA IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. TWENTY-SEVEN REMAINS
RATHER UNORGANIZED ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 60W-63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS MORE OF THE ISLANDS FROM 10.5N-16N BETWEEN
57W-63.5W INCLUDING BARBADOS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES
KEEPING THE CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N31W 7N39W 5N56W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-12N E OF 34W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FROM THE W ATLC TRAILING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF NEAR GEORGIA/N FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
NE U.S. TOO FAR N THAT THE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS MAINLY W/SW
WITH CONTINUED MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER CUBA. LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF S OF 28N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN 91W-95W FROM MOISTURE BEING PULLED N AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE S MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
ACROSS E TEXAS. THIS FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF SPREADING SE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY AIR/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BAHAMAS SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THE BEST WEATHER ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN OCCURRING N OF 16N W OF 72W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BEGINS S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N75W AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WITH PEAK WINDS APPROACHING 50 KT. DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE
AREA S AND E OF THE JET PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 16N W OF 65W
TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
FAIR WEATHER REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE W ATLC WITH A BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ON THE S SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM NNE OF BERMUDA. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE W ATLC...BOUNDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE ALONG 25N55W
TO BEYOND 32N47W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS APPROACHING 90 KT NEAR 30N.
THE JET IS NOW ALIGNED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N53W TO N OF HAITI
NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N
OF 20N W OF 44W. FARTHER S...A LARGE AREA OF BROAD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE LIES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 50W-64W...INCLUDING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. TWENTY-SEVEN. A LARGE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF COMPLEX UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE E/CNTRL
ATLC WITH THE LARGEST AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE CENTERED NEAR
24N33W...MOVING SW NEAR 10 KT. THE LOW IS CAUSING THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO DIP S OF 10N...THEN SURGE BACK NE ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WESTERN SAHARA WITH UPPER WINDS OF
90-110 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF
LINE 13N29W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 16N21W.

$$
WALLACE



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