[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  1008 MB LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N ACCORDING THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE FROM 9N-19N
BETWEEN 51W-59W AND SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW QUITE WET FOR THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THE LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BUT WLY UPPER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W S OF 17N MOVING W 10
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND STRONG SHEAR.  NO WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS CAN BE FOUND AND
EXTRAPOLATION IS USED TO PLACE THE WAVE... WHICH LIES IN A LARGE
FLAT AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
70W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 5N40W 12N54W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-23W AND WITHIN 45 NM
OF LINE 5.5N33W 10N49W.  CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM OF 9.5N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REGION... THANKS TO A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS SWEPT MOST OF THE GULF CLEAN.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THE TAIL OF THE FRONT... WHICH IS JUST SOME REMNANT MOISTURE
SPREADING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A
LINE FROM THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 26N90W TO GALVESTON BAY.  THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OVER LOUISIANA TOMORROW.  SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF WITH MOSTLY ELY WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLY WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  THERE
ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THINGS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET
UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PART OF THE REGION LATE
TUE.  UNTIL THEN MID/UPPER RIDGING IN THE E GULF AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE NW PART OF THAT RIDGE SHOULD
DOMINATE.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS EXPERIENCED A
QUICK DEATH WITH ONLY A WEAK TROUGH REMAINING FROM NEAR E
HONDURAS TO THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
FOR YUCATAN OVERNIGHT.  LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN/TSTMS
PERSISTS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN... FUELING BY DIFFLUENCE ON THE N
SIDE OF RIDGING IN THE AREA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF
14N W OF 75W.. MOST NUMEROUS N OF 11N.  COMPUTER MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON SUGGESTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  STRONG WLY UPPER WINDS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN..
SLACKENING A LITTLE IN THE E CARIBBEAN.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF 13.5N65W WITH OTHER SHOWERS NEAR PUERTO RICO.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS LIKELY TO THE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR THE
BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES TO END... COURTESY
OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLC.... SWINGING PAST
BERMUDA INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N54W SW INTO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS DISSIPATING NEAR
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  BEST UPPER LIFT/DIVERGENCE IS ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE 24.5N50W TO 31N48W.  BEHIND THE FRONT... SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS.. BECOMING MORE BROKEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-75W... ARE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  MID/UPPER RIDGING IS FROM 11N53W TO
32N43W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC... WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM CIRRUS DEBRIS.  THIS RIDGING IS TRYING TO
LESSEN THE SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BUT IT STILL REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG.  PAIR OF UPPER LOWS
IS STUCK BENEATH THE HIGH HEIGHTS IN THE MID-LATITUDE E ATLC...
THE STRONGER OF THE TWO NEAR 21N30W.  ISOLATED COLD-AIR
INSTABILITY TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW.  SECOND LOW IS
DROPPING IN THE REGION NEAR 30N25W.  THE BLOCK IN THE NE ATLC IS
BREAKING DOWN AND SHOULD ALLOW GENERAL TROUGHING TO PERSIST IN
THE AREA AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.  UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FIRST
LOW EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO 9N35W.. WITH STRONG WNW
WINDS UP TO 80 KT W OF THE TROUGH AND WSW WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT
JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDES.  AT THE SURFACE... STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE RULE E OF 50W.

$$
BLAKE

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