[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL IS EVIDENT NEAR 10N56W
ON NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY.  IT IS QUITE ORGANIZED FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  WLY SHEAR SHOULD HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 53W-58W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72/73W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT.  BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS.  WLY SHEAR ALOFT IS ALSO PRESENT OVER
THIS WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N40W 8N50W 12N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-28W...
AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AT
ABOUT 8 KT.  FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF ALONG 23N80W 22N86W 25N95W.  OVERCAST TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE RIDGE
AXIS IS ALONG 90W MOVING E.  EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF S OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  ITCZ
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
73W-80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN W OF DOMINICA FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 63W-65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... BROAD TROUGHING WITH
WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF
16N...WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE
S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE W ATLANTIC AND PRESENTLY
EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 25N70W TO W CUBA NEAR 22N80W.  EASTERLY
FLOW WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W 24N64W 22N70W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
51W-58W.  A VERY STRONG 1042 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF
23N BETWEEN 58W-80W.  FURTHER E...MID/UPPER RIDGING IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W-58W WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY E OF THE
RIDGE AXIS.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N30W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-32N BETWEEN
20W-40W.  STRONGLY WLY JET COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE
5N-15N E OF 40W WITH WINDS UP TO 80 KT.

$$
FORMOSA



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