[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 15
KT.  A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL IS EVIDENT NEAR 10N55W ON
NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY.  IT IS QUITE ORGANIZED FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  WLY SHEAR SHOULD HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS.  WLY SHEAR ALOFT IS ALSO PRESENT OVER
THIS WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 70W-72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 6N40W 9N50W 12N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-25W...
AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 25W-30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG
24N80W 25N90W 28N98W.  OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG
THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE E.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 90W MOVING E.
EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF S OF THE
FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
80W-83W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN W OF
GUADALOUPE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 62W-65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD TROUGHING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS S OF 16N...WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N.  EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE W ATLANTIC AND PRESENTLY
EXTENDS FROM 32N61W TO 26N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W.  EASTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N61W 24N70W
22N77W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 59W-61W.  A VERY STRONG 1044 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE AREA DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC....
SWINGING THROUGH BERMUDA INTO THE NW BAHAMAS.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
IS ALONG 48W-50W N OF 10N WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  STRONGLY WLY JET COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC E OF 40W WITH WINDS UP TO 80 KT.

$$
FORMOSA


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