[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16N MOVING W 15
KT.  SATELLITE DATA FROM YESTERDAY WAS SUGGESTING THE WAVE WAS
BEGINNING TO SEPARATE ITSELF FROM ITCZ CONVECTION... AND
OVERNIGHT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE CIRCULATION BECOME EVIDENT.  A
LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SPINNING NEAR 9.5N ALONG THE
WAVE... WHICH IS QUITE WELL-ORGANIZED FOR NOVEMBER.  WLY SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  ONE THING THE WLY SHEAR
WILL ACCOMMODATE IS A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE... CURRENTLY FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
48W-55W.  THIS RAIN SHOULD ENTER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
DAWN.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
WITH NO WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS.  WLY SHEAR IS KEEPING MOST OF
THE TSTMS E OF THE WAVE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
63W-70W.  AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLE FOR CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND WLY SHEAR ASSISTING TSTMS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N12W 5N19W 6N27W 6N37W 12N52W.   WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN FROM 5N-7.5N BETWEEN
22W-31W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 20W AND
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING THRU THE GULF... NOW INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF TO 25N90W STATIONARY TO
28N95W.  THE NW END OF THE FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH ONLY SOME
CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENTS.  CLEAR SKIES ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER S FLORIDA.  MOISTURE
IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE W GULF AS AN UPPER LOW
LEAVES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FAR NW GULF FOR SUN AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.  THE
BIG STORY LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF LATE TUE.  WINDS MIGHT APPROACH GALE
FORCE IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED REGION NEAR E MEXICO ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS
ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA IN ADDITION TO
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CONTROLS THE N CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER
RIDGING GROWING THE SW CARIBBEAN.  STRONG WLY SHEAR COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN.. WHICH IS FUELING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN
ADDITION TO RATHER WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES FOR NOVEMBER.   A
FEW STUBBORN TSTMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA N OF
JAMAICA NEAR AND E OF GRAND CAYMAN.  OTHERWISE ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA TRYING TO
FORM... JUDGING FROM THE SLY WINDS NOTED IN NW COLOMBIA THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SAVE THE EXTREME E AND NW PART.  THESE MODELS ALSO
HINT AT AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION... PERHAPS AN INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE
ITCZ...BUT EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL HAPPEN REMAINS A MYSTERY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE AREA S OF 17N E OF CENTRAL AMERICA... JUST NIPPING PUERTO
RICO... WITH PLENTY OF DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC.... SWINGING THRU
BERMUDA INTO THE NW BAHAMAS.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS JUST PAST
BERMUDA APPROACHING NASSAU THOUGH ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ... DECREASING W OF 75W.
BEST UPPER LIFT IS A LITTLE FARTHER E ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N62W 26N66W 24N73W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIES
ALONG 19N61W TO 30N57W SPARKING A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
20N57W.  MID/UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG 48W-50W N OF 10N WITH PLENTY
OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  HIGH-OVER-LOW
BLOCK PERSISTS IN THE E ATLC... WITH THE HIGH OVER THE
MID-LATITUDES AND A LOW NEAR 23N27W.  STRONGLY WLY JET COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 40W WITH WINDS UP TO 80 KT.   AT THE
SURFACE.... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
25 KT OR GREATER TRADES IN THE NE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE



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