[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 52W S OF 16N...ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ADDED BASED ON A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 9N54W. IN ADDITION...THE
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM CAYENNE AT 1200 UTC INDICATES A NE TO E
WIND SHIFT FROM THE SURFACE TO 800/850 MB. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-56W. THESE
SHOWERS MAY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE
VENEZUELA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SAT.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
DUE TO LOW PRES OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS
ALSO UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS FORCED MOST OF THE
TSTM ACTIVITY E OF THE AXIS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 62W-68W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N10W 4N30W 10N50W 7N56W 13N68W 8N80W. ISOLATED
TSTMS ALONG THE AXIS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-84W PRIMARILY
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND EXTENDING FROM THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW GULF HAS INDUCED MODERATE NWLY
FLOW OVER THE E HALF OF THE AREA AND IS ULTIMATELY FORCING A
COLD FRONT SWD FROM MIAMI FLORIDA WWD TO 26N90W THEN NW NEAR
HOUSTON TEXAS. THE FRONT IS MARKED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL BY CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE NE GULF AND
MOST OF FLORIDA. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S OF THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS...AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INTO SE TEXAS IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE. ALSO...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NEAR MONTERREY MEXICO IS LIFTING NE AND IS SPREADING A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN TEXAS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER E TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NEW COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
SUN. ELSEWHERE...THE N/NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IMPINGING SLIGHTLY
ON THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN SKIES
EXTENDING DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO GUATEMALA.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND
FLOW EMANATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR PANAMA. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS SAGGING SWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND IS ALSO SPREADING E ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO. DEEP CONVECTION IS ALIGNED LINEARLY E/W
ABOUT 65/70 NM N OF PANAMA BUT APPEARS TO BE SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SWD TOWARDS THE COAST AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC IS BRUSHING THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM 14N64W NE ACROSS ST. KITTS/NEVIS TO 19N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED DOWNSHEAR OF THE TROUGH
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 56W-62W...PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF THE
ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE E ON SUN.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S. AND NOW RESTS OVER THE W ATLC...JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS JUST PASSED
BERMUDA AND EXTENDS ALONG 32N64W 28N70W TO NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA.
BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT WITH
RAPID CLEARING TO THE W. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED
ABOUT 130 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 40 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N69W 32N62W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LIES JUST E OF THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG 27N59W 22N61W 19N66W AND IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN
54W-60W. MODERATE WLY UPPER FLOW PROTRUDES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND EVOLVES OVER THE ATLC AS AN 80-90 KT JET ALONG 17N HEADING
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE JET LIES ALONG THE SRN
BOUNDARY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N29W AND
IS DROPPING SSW WHILE ALSO BECOMING ELONGATED.

$$
BERG


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