[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT.  BROAD TURNING IS SEEN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE
IS COMBINING WITH UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  WET WEATHER SHOULD OVERSPREAD PUERTO RICO TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N30W 9N50W 11N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 36W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W TO E TEXAS
NEAR 29N95W.  JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND NO UPPER SUPPORT.  NLY WINDS.. GENERALLY
LIGHT... COVER THE REGION S OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N AND E
OF 90W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. AN
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N102W.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH S FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY WITH
ELY WINDS OVER THE GULF THEREAFTER.  CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE SW GULF..SAVE A FEW COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
FORMING OFFSHORE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN
EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE
ITCZ THAT EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
70W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W ENHANCING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  EXPECT
THE E CARIBBEAN TO SHIFTED INTO A WET PATTERN WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING IN AND WLY SHEAR ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING
ANY WEAK WAVE THAT COMES INTO THE REGION.  THE S CARIBBEAN S OF
12N WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W 28N80W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N66W 25N73W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 61W-64W.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE E USA AND DIVING OFFSHORE
INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.  A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N61W.  RIDGING IS
FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  WESTERLIES COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA



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