[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT.  BROAD TURNING IS SEEN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE
IS COMBINING WITH UPPER TROUGHING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  WET WEATHER SHOULD OVERSPREAD PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT.  WAVE IS HARD TO SEPARATE FROM THE TYPICAL CYCLONIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT TURNING IN THE
EPAC ITCZ IS THE BEST MARKER OF THE WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N30W 10N45W 11N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 22W-27W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
32W-40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 29N80W TO A 1018 MB LOW
OVER E TEXAS NEAR 29N95W.  JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND NO UPPER SUPPORT.  NLY WINDS..
GENERALLY LIGHT... COVER THE REGION S OF THE FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N
AND E OF 90W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. AN
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N102W.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH S FLORIDA BY LATE TOMORROW WITH
ELY WINDS OVER THE GULF THEREAFTER.  CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE SW GULF..SAVE A FEW COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
FORMING OFFSHORE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TWO
EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES PRODUCING MOST OF THE CONVECTION...SEE
ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND E PANAMA FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 71W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER S NICARAGUA NEAR
11N84W ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN.  THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW.  EXPECT THE E CARIBBEAN TO SHIFTED INTO A WET PATTERN WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN AND WLY SHEAR ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCING ANY WEAK WAVE THAT COMES INTO THE REGION.  THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 29N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-32N BETWEEN 69W-71W.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N66W 25N72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 63W-67W.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE E USA AND DIVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS MENTIONED ABOVE.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N61W.  RIDGING IS FURTHER E N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  WESTERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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