[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT.  BROAD TURNING IS SEEN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS.  HOWEVER THE WAVE IS COMBINING WITH
UPPER TROUGHING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH OTHER ISOLATED
ACTIVITY E OF 66W INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  WET WEATHER SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT.  WAVE IS HARD TO SEPARATE FROM THE TYPICAL CYCLONIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT TURNING IN THE
EPAC ITCZ IS THE BEST MARKER OF THE WAVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS OVER S NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ARE PROBABLY DUE TO THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N14W 7N26W 11N58W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 40W-55W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
22W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME N PART OF THE AREA..
CLEARING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN INTO SE LOUISIANA S OF NEW
ORLEANS.  JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO UPPER SUPPORT.  NLY WINDS.. GENERALLY LIGHT...
COVER THE REGION S OF THE FRONT.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD FROM NW CUBA TO SE TEXAS WITH A DEEP TROUGH FORMING
ALONG 79W N OF FLORIDA... DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD.  THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU S FLORIDA BY LATE TOMORROW WITH ELY WINDS
OVER THE GULF THEREAFTER.  ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT
IN THE SW GULF..SAVE A FEW COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS FORMING
OFFSHORE...  ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MIGHT ENTER THE REGION LATE TUE/EARLY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
N OF 17N W OF HAITI.  HOWEVER ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORMING WHERE
THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS INTO A TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA TO BELIZE.
RATHER DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...
OCCASIONALLY FUELING A TSTM OUTBREAK... USUALLY IN THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.  THE E CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED INTO A WET PATTERN
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN AND WLY SHEAR ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING ANY WEAK WAVE THAT COMES INTO THE REGION.
THE ITCZ IS RATHER FAR TO THE N AND MOISTURE KEEPS SPREADING
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.. EVENTUALLY AS FAR N AND W AS PUERTO
RICO.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH A MUCH HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CHANCE OF RAIN E OF 70W
IN THE CARIBBEAN.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A BIG SLUG OF MOISTURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC.   AS A SIDE...COMPUTER MODELS ARE
STARTING TO HINT THAT SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK AS THE WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN SLOWLY MOVES IN ALONG WITH A FORECAST OF MORE UPPER
RIDGING.  OF COURSE THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
FRAME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE E USA... NOW DIVING OFFSHORE
INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC ALONG 79W N OF ABOUT 28N.  ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON THE NW BORDER AND SHOULD BE MOVING IN
SHORTLY.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.  SECOND
UPPER TROUGH... MUCH WEAKER.. IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 31N61W SW
TO HISPANIOLA... HELPING TO FIRE TSTMS NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  THIRD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 21N44W WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N.  UPPER
TROUGHING WITH A LOW NEAR 27N23W IS IN THE NE ATLC N OF 20N E OF
34W WITH A HIGH-OVER-LOW PATTERN IN PLACE.. AND NOT LIKELY TO
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE SEMI-BLOCKY REGIME.
BROAD RIDGING WITH AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 40W COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDES... ASSISTING ITCZ CONVECTION.   HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE E ATLC WITH AVERAGE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TRADES...THOUGH WEAKENING W OF 50W.

$$
BLAKE


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