[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101821 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 10 2005

CORRECTION TO INCLUDE MORE INFORMATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL SHOWS UP IN THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA MAY BE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 KT THROUGH MEXICO ALONG 98W.
NO DEEP THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N13W 7N25W 10N50W 12N59W 11N62W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN
23W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO
8N BETWEEN 17W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALSO
FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S.A...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS
THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON AN EAST-WEST
LINE...INTO EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IT BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND CONTINUES THROUGH
AND BEYOND WEST TEXAS. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS IN THE AREA OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE GULF WATERS IS FLAT AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH/
NORTHEAST/EAST OF 25N98W 24N91W 21N89W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO...WITH WESTERLY WIND FLOW. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...AND FROM 21N TO
24N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE DRY AIR EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR THE ITCZ AND CLOSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER ARE ANTICYCLONIC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD EVEN NEAR
15N77W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 18N IS WESTERLY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA MAY BE ACCOMPANYING
THE 83W/84W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PATTERN OF SUCCESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 68W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W 26N73W 22N77W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N69W
26N70W 23N71W 21N72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N65W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THIS RIDGE FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 20N42W BEYOND 32N43W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 18N53W 22N52W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 27N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 23N49W TO 30N40W BEYOND 34N35W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 30N24W TO 27N35W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 23N EAST OF 40W. THE FLOW IS
EASILY MOSTLY WESTERLY...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE FOR EXAMPLE
FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

$$
MT


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