[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR
IS LIMITING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING WESTWARD
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 66W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 15N MOVING W
5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSCURED DUE TO
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT. WAVE IS
UNDER THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALONG 96W/97W S
OF 21N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N29W 13N52W 11N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 21W-30W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 36W-46W AND FROM
53W-62W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NOW EXTENDS A RIDGE
NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OFF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N94W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR BEING
FORCED SE ACROSS THE NW GULF AND ALL OF THE E GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE W GULF BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N87W. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE NE U.S. WILL DIP INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY
THEN SKIRT THE N GULF AND IN THE W ATLC BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SW OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE NW COVERING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 68W. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLC...INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 85W. DRY
AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEING DRAWN S OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA
N OF 17N FROM 75W-87W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE NW WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W TO 30N70W.
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC TO OVER ALL OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...DISPLACING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WELL E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 60W-66W. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR 27N51W WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N51W S TO 18N52W. A SHARP RIDGE IS TO THE E
OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 13N31W NNW TO BEYOND 32N40W.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N FROM 40W-50W. AN
UPPER LOW IS MOVING SW INTO THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N21W WITH A BROAD
CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N E OF 34W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 42W WITH THE 1042 MB HIGH ENE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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