[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE HAS BEGUN TO SLOW MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS
LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW LEVEL WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSCURED DUE TO HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT. WAVE IS UNDER
THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALONG 96W S OF
21N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N25W 10N49W 11N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 21W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-62W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN.
THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NOW EXTENDS A RIDGE
NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OFF THE
TEXAS/ MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N94W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR BEING
FORCED SE ACROSS THE NW GULF AND ALL OF THE E GULF INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OFF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE NE U.S. WILL DIP INTO THE GULF TODAY THEN
SKIRT THE N GULF AND BY IN THE W ATLC ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND EVEN
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE SW OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE NW COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO
NICARAGUA INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE UPPER TROUGH THE
COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLC...INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 85W. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS BEING DRAWN S OVER CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF
18N FROM 76W-86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF 76W OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
15N FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE NW WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO OVER
CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S/CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO 30N71W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS BEING
DRAWN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS  ISLANDS...DISPLACING SOME OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 61W-73W. AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR 26N52W WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING S TO 20N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N52W S TO 19N51W. A SHARP RIDGE IS TO THE E
OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 15N34W NNW TO BEYOND 32N38W.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N FROM 40W-51W. AN
UPPER LOW IS MOVING W INTO THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N21W WITH A BROAD
CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 34W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 45W WITH THE 1041 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


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