[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. ROTATION
IS SEEN IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOSTLY S OF GUADELOUPE.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOVING THRU THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF GUADELOUPE WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 58W-62W.

W CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC
TURNING IS PRESENT ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
APPROACHING SAN ANDRES ISLAND.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 14N W OF
79W.

BAY OF CAMPECHE WAVE NEAR 95W/96W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT.  A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER WATER..
OTHERWISE BROKEN CLOUDS ARE OVER LAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 6N22W 10N37W 11N46W 11N57W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-26W PLUS 31W-35W.
WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS STUCK IN A PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND NO
FRONTS ARE AROUND.  NE TO E WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF... AND E
TO SE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS N
OF A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N87.5W BUT IS LIMITED TO A NARROW AREA
ALONG THE LOUISIANA THRU FLORIDA COAST.  GENERALLY SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE THE RULE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 28N90W TO 24N92W.
CHANGES ARE COMING TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE
REGION... THOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WON'T MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS IN THE SW GULF BUT IT SHOULD SWEEP ALL THE WAY
THRU THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE FRI.  UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES
FOR NOW WITH A DRY PLUME EXTENDING FROM NW CUBA TO SE TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA THRU NE HONDURAS AND
BELIZE.  SOME DIFFLUENCE ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING
ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.  BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING CONTROLS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE N.. ENHANCING DAYTIME
TSTMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA.  THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD SWING FAR ENOUGH S TO BREAK THE DRY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... WITH OTHER PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.. COURTESY OF THE
ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES.  CONDITIONS LOOK CONSIDERABLY WETTER
FOR LATE WEEK IN THE E CARIBBEAN THAN RECENTLY.  VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS OVER CUBA... SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC W OF 48W.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED... ONE ALONG 70W AND THE OTHER APPROACHING
50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
65W-72W AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...CONNECTING WITH A TROUGH
.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE N OF 24N
BETWEEN 45W-50W WITH A WEAK 1015 LOW NEAR 31N52W DUE TO THE
TROUGH.  MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME NW ATLC WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 90
NM OF 25N56W BETWEEN THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES.  A THIRD SHORTWAVE
WILL ENTER THE REGION BY LATE WEEK... DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NW ATLC LATE TOMORROW.  GENTLE RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL
ATLC E OF 45W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 8-10N INTO SW AFRICA.
UPPER TROUGHING IS IN THE NE ATLC E OF 34W WITH A HIGH-OVER-LOW
PATTERN IN PLACE.. AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS IN THE SEMI-BLOCKY REGIME.  STRONG SURFACE HIGH.. 1040 MB
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL.. CONTROLS THE ATLC WITH STRONG
TRADES N OF 25N E OF 40W.

$$
BLAKE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net