[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
FROM NORTHERN WATERS OF BARBADOS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE
ISLAND OF MARIE GALANTE OF GUADELOUPE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO NEAR THE ITCZ...FROM PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS SOUTH OF 20.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 6N22W 10N37W 11N46W 11N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND
22W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING EASTWARD FROM
10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W...UNDER UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS REGION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO EAST TEXAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO...SURROUNED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR ON ITS WESTERN SIDE WEST OF 100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 25N FROM
EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ALSO IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 23N85W 25N89W 27N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA NEAR THE ITCZ AND THE 80W TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ARE SOUTH OF 13N82W 13N75W 12N68W 12N60W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FOUND NEAR 14.5N75W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEE 70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IT APPEARS THAT A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W
NORTH OF 20N. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT SHOW UP IN THE 09/1500 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N68W 20N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. A
SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 32N51W 26N55W 20N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N27W. THE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN MOROCCO/WESTERN MAURITANIA BORDER.
AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 23N49W TO 30N40W BEYOND
34N35W.

$$
MT


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