[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
BENEATH DRY UPPER AIR LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 10N-15N AND IS APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WEAK WAVE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS S OF
JAMAICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO IS ALONG 93W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 91W-95W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N17W 10N35W 12N47W 11N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NW
INTO THE GULF OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
28N95W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM E TEXAS OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 24N102W.
DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS S MEXICO OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE... A RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE GULF FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA TO CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY THEN THE GULF WILL AGAIN DRY
OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
SW OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NW FROM
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W 15N82W TO
THE YUCATAN/BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO
JUST OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES
BRINGING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA E OF 74W.
MOST OF THE N CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH
MID-WEEK WHILE THE S CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STEADILY MOVING TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BEFORE THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
NEAR 27N57W ALONG 20N61W TO JUST OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST IN THE
E CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
HISPANIOLA COAST NEAR 20N71W N TO 31N70W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS
BEING DRAWN FROM THE SE U.S. ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC OVER
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS...DISPLACING SOME OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS E...WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM THE
S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N73W ALONG 25N67W TO 31N70W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N57W NNE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR
32N52W. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS TO THE E FROM 20N40W N TO
BEYOND 32N41W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE SHARP FEATURES IS
GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N56W TO 30N52W...WITHIN 150 NM
OF LINE FROM 20N44W TO 30N48W...AND N OF 30N FROM 45W-54W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE ATLC COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 50W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
THEN E...GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 12N-20N E OF 53W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. A MID LEVEL
LOW IS ROTATING E TOWARD THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 24N19W. AT THE
SURFACE... BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 50W WITH A
1038 MB HIGH ANCHORED E OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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