[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090517
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
BENEATH DRY UPPER AIR LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 9N-13N.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR JAMAICA.
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N25W 10N42W 11N62W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200
NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-40W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
23W-32W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE
BORDER OF LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE TO 4N22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE NW
INTO THE GULF OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N94W. A WEAKENING BUT SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM E
TEXAS TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE
RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS S MEXICO OVER THE W
GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 27N OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE W
OF 95W TO JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW
GULF WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THU THEN THE GULF WILL
AGAIN DRY OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
SW OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N FROM OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SW OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W 15N80W TO THE YUCATAN
NEAR 17N88W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA E OF 80W. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ARE MOVING OFF THE
COAST AND ARE BEGINNING  TO DIE OUT N OF 17N. THE N CARIBBEAN
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE THE S
CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...THEN STEADILY
MOVING TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 20N62W TO THE
VENEZUELAN COAST IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N62W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N70W TO
28N71W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N68W TO 30N70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 23N57W NNE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N51W. A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS TO THE E FROM 20N39W N TO BEYOND 32N41W.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE SHARP FEATURES IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 45W-61W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE ATLC COVERS THE AREA S OF 22N E OF
50W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N AND E...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-21N
BETWEEN 20W-52W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING E TOWARD THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 24N22W. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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