[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH CONVECTION
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 53W-56W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT.  SOME LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER GUATEMALA IS ALONG 89W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  A BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING W OVER N GUATEMALA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
89W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 9N40W 10N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 21W-25W...
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 45W-48W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N85W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO S TEXAS...THUS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS LIGHT E-SE
WINDS.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER E HONDURAS NEAR
15N84W PRODUCING 40-70 KT SW-W WINDS.  BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SW
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
77W-84W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER E HONDURAS DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  A TROUGH COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...
CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND OVER
INLAND S AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER S ALABAMA IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG
30N71W 20N72W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 23W-26W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 24N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 50W-58W.  A LARGE 1035 MB
HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT
40N26W...THUS EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 10W-45W WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E... N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W WITH
AXIS ALONG 40W.  UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE NOTED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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