[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080501
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT.
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF 11N RESULTING
IN THIS BEING A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 40W-48W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...THUS THE SLOW
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 68W TO
THE WAVE AXIS.

W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N22W 7N47W 8N60W. BROAD AREA
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 1N-13N BETWEEN 12W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM E TEXAS TO OVER
MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS S MEXICO OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN
90W-97W INCLUDING THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MOVING INTO E MEXICO ON WED. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE U.S.
OVERRIDING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE REGION.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK THEN
THE GULF WILL AGAIN DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE SW OF THE UPPER HIGH IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N FROM OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 79W. UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W TO THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA BRINGING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA
E OF 80W EXCEPT FOR WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA. THE N CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK
WHILE THE S CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WESTWARD. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
67W WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG 70W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N71W
TO 29N69W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 32N62W
SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A RIDGE IS
DEVELOPING TO THE E FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 13N53W ALONG 25N53W TO
35N55W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE SHARP FEATURES IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N32N BETWEEN 47W-60W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
10N24W N TO 31N25W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 27W-40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N
OF 20N.

$$
WALLACE


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