[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
43W-48W.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 82W/83W
SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 80W-86W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N30W 7N45W 8N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 21W-24W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 28W-38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 38W-43W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 55W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N96W
20N95W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF 93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 94W-95W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 21N85W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
FOR FLORIDA WITH SW TO W FLOW.  EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ALONG
THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWIND EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES.  CONVECTION IS PREVALENT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...SEE ABOVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND
N VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 61W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 21N85W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS BETWEEN 70W-80W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
60W-70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W
22N57W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 49W-60W.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 35N34W
PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICS FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING WITH W FLOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N59W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N40W.  AN E/W RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 8N BETWEEN 10W-50W WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE THE ITCZ.

$$
FORMOSA


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