[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 6N ALONG 43W/44W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 9.5N BETWEEN
44W AND 48W HAVE DEVELOPED AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS
PROGRESSED MORE AND MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG
80W/81W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WESTWARD 10 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS FROM MEXICO'S BORDER WITH GUATEMALA WESTWARD TO WHERE
THE WAVE IS NOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N12W 8N30W 7N41W 7N45W 8N56W 9N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 38W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 11N52W
8N58W 12N58W 11N52W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH
OF 20N EAST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N40W. THIS CIRCULATION
CENTER APPEARS TO BE STRETCHING ITSELF OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ALONG 28N96W 24N94W 18N93W. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW IS WEST OF 25N95W 20N92W. MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 89W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS...AROUND A HIGH
CENTER IN THE WEST/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FROM
TEXAS TO LOUISIANA AND THE GULF COAST STATES EASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS IN THE WEST/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 17N84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND REACHES AT LEAST 30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 70W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA WITH THE 80W/81W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N61W
TO 20N61W TO 13N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF
83W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS SENDING UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPIRALING/CURVING EASTWARD TO 12N/13N
ALONG 50W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM THE 17N84W NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HIGH CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
20N WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM FLORIDA ARE MEETING IN THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 62W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 30N61W TO 20N61W TO 13N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W WITH A SEPARATE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 32N50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
21N40W. THIS CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE STRETCHING ITSELF
OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N57W
26N58W 21N57W. A SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
35N35W. BROAD SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST AND
WEST OF THE 32N57W 21N57W TROUGH.

$$
MT


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