[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 12N MOVING W 15
KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF 10N
RESULTING IN THIS BEING A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 15N MOVING W 15
KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM THE
WAVE AXIS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 15N MOVING W
15-20 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER PANAMA AND THE E
PACIFIC REGION WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N FROM INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA.

S GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS BROKEN FROM THE WAVE
AXIS...PRODUCING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W GULF. A 1107 MB LOW
IS ON THE WAVE AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 20N FROM 94W-96W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N17W 9N28W 7N45W 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
24W-32W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 32W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 10N FROM 45W-50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 15N TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 57W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S.
INTO THE W ATLC WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM OVER E
TEXAS TO OVER MEXICO. THE MAJORITY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SKIRTING
THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING
WELL TO THE N MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE
OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT BROKE FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 89W AND THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W
GULF TODAY AND TUE MOVING INTO E MEXICO ON WED. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF WITH A 1022 MB HIGH OVER S
GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W. AS THE MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
OVER E MEXICO...THE GULF WILL AGAIN DRY OUT UNTIL THE WEEKS END
WHEN A STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER
THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W
COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 70W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W OF 82W AND ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W BRINGING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA E OF
80W EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSING OF
A TROPICAL WAVE. THE N CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID
WEEK WHILE THE S CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM
32W-70W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N66W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 58W-61W. AN UPPER LOW
IS SITUATED NEAR 32N51W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO
25N52W. THIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W-55W. A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW IS SE OF THE FIRST NEAR 21N41W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO 16N48W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
10N24W N TO 29N30W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-29N
BETWEEN 23W-40W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N
OF 20N WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W N TO 32N74W AND A SECOND TROUGH...
REFLECTION OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 21N57W 29N57W TO
37N54W.

$$
WALLACE



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