[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT.
MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED S OF 10N RESULTING IN THIS BEING
A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 36W-44W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE
OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 8N57W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM 63W-65W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA.

GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W S OF 23N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS IS THE STRONGEST OF ALL THE WAVES IN THE ATLC
BASIN TONIGHT. WAVE IS BENEATH S TO SW UPPER FLOW ON THE W EDGE
OF AN UPPER HIGH GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 90W-96W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S MEXICO AND
ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N FROM 92W-95W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N38W 9N45W 10N62W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 17W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR EXCEPT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING SW
FROM OVER E TEXAS TO OVER MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SKIRTING
THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING
WELL TO THE N MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING INTO MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TUE. AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N83W SW INTO THE W GULF. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION...THE GULF WILL
AGAIN DRY OUT UNTIL THE WEEKS END WHEN A STRONG DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W
COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 70W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W BRINGING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA E OF
78W EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE N
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE THE S CARIBBEAN
WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE
WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM
34W-70W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 20N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
61W-72W. AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED NEAR 31N53W WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO 27N56W. THIS IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 49W-61W. A
SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW IS SE OF THE FIRST NEAR 20N42W WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 16N48W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 10N24W N TO 29N30W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-27N BETWEEN 26W-45W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC ALONG 73W FROM THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS
TO 29N.

$$
WALLACE




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