[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 11N MOVING W
15 KT.  THIS IS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE.  BROAD ROTATION IS NOW
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES JUST N OF THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 35W-40W.  COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE DURING ITS TREK
WESTWARD... ESPECIALLY WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO
ITS NW IN A DAY OR TWO.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 63W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA FROM TRINIDAD AND ST
MARTEEN SHOW THAT THE WAVE IS W OF THOSE ISLANDS.  WEATHER FROM
THE WAVE IS IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 13N MOVING
W 15 KT.  THE WAVE HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE ABC
ISLANDS AND NW VENEZUELA.  INCREASING CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE THE
EASIEST WAY TO TRACK THE WAVE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
13N BETWEEN 70W-74W.  SOME INCREASE IN TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WHEN THE WAVE
ENTERS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW.

SW GULF/CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W S OF 23N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE EPAC IS THE
EASIEST WAY TO TRACK THE WAVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
90W-95W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 7N20W 8N37W 6N40W 10N45W
10N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 22W-26W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 28W-35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST E OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF MOVING W.  CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE...AND OVER THE NW TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS MOVING E.
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN
INCREASING CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID-LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE N GULF FROM S
TEXAS TO SW GEORGIA.  MOISTURE IN THE S GULF SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD.. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER NE MEXICO TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN...
SURFACE EASTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TWO
EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES.  OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-85W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO MID/UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE OVER THE AREA.  ONE IS CENTERED
OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.  THE OTHER IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO
RICO.  THE EASTERNMOST CIRCULATION IS A RATHER DRY FEATURE WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W... KEEPING ANY
SHOWERS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.  THINGS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT IN
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH MORE DEEP-LEVELED MOISTURE LEADING TO
WETTER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC...
1024 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N78W.  A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 31N73W 25N73W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 70W-72W.  ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W
28N56W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 55W-58W...AND FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 48W-53W.  A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 37N32W IS PRODUCING EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SUBTROPICS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-50W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FARTHER E ALONG 54W.  A
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 20N43W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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