[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE PARTIALLY
MASKED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 68W-72W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W S OF 20N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S UPPER FLOW ON THE W EDGE OF AN
UPPER HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO OVER THE NE
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N18W 7N32W 7N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 8W-38W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE E U.S. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING WELL TO
THE N. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING N OF THE YUCATAN S OF 25N FROM
88W-92W IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVES W. AT A SURFACE...RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA SW TO THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 76W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS INTERACTING
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 78W. A SECOND SMALLER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N70W EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS
SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W DRY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA MOVES OUT AND BEFORE THE TROPICAL W OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVES IN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 53W WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N73W N TO BEYOND 32N72W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF BERMUDA FROM 33N57W TO 26N60W WITH A
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N
FROM 50W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC
MAINLY N OF THE REGION ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N42W THROUGH
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 19N45W TO 14N47W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N26W NNW TO 27N35W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF
THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN
32W-45W. THIS IS LEAVING THE E TROPICAL ATLC VIRTUALLY CLEAR AND
DRY. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES DO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
AFRICAN DUST FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 20W-27W. AT THE SURFACE...A
1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N28W WITH A
BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC N OF 17N E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE



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