[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE MASKED BY AN
UPPER LOW TO THE N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 66W-70W.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S UPPER FLOW ON THE W EDGE OF AN
UPPER HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N29W 11N46W 9N57W 10N65W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG ARE FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-41W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
MOVING OUT OF THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE E U.S. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING WELL TO THE N.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE N GULF N OF 24N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA
MOVES W. AT A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N
FLORIDA SW TO THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 75W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS INTERACTING
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 80W. A SECOND SMALLER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N64W EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS
SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W DRY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN
MOVES OUT AND BEFORE THE TROPICAL W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVES IN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 30N72W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N72W N TO BEYOND 32N71W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF BERMUDA FROM 33N59W TO 27N61W
WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
28N FROM 56W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLC MAINLY N OF THE REGION ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N41W
THROUGH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N45W TO 13N47W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N25W NNW TO 30N31W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 34W-44W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE E TROPICAL ATLC VIRTUALLY CLEAR AND DRY.
ALTHOUGH THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES DO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
AFRICAN DUST OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N30W WITH A BROAD RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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