[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT.  THIS IS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE AND A LOW-CONFIDENCE WAVE
POSITION DUE TO A NEARBY UPPER LOW MASKING THE WAVE'S
SIGNATURE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ARE CONFINED NEAR
THE S AMERICAN COAST S OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-70W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-20N
BETWEEN 81W-88W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 8N30W 9N40W 11N50W
9N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 21W-25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 27W-21W...FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-41W...AND FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 56W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF MOSTLY N OF 23N.  MOST WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 10-20 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID-LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SE GULF WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT S OF 26N.  WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET LIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
GEORGIA. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN GULF OVER YUCATAN.. THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE SW
GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN...
SURFACE EASTERLIES WITH VELOCITIES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TWO EMBEDDED TROPICAL WAVES.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE CARIBBEAN IS DIVIDED BY RATHER
MOIST/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS W OF 77W...WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS
QUITE DRY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W.
EXPECT MORE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE N COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N71W 24N72W.  A
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N29W PRODUCING
SURFACE EASTERLIES OVER THE SUBTROPICS FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN
10W-70W.  OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...W TO WSW WINDS
COVER THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE W ATLC... WITH WEAK TROUGHING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS.  A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SUBTROPICS AT 20N45W.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N65W NE TO
27N52W THEN 31N38W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN
30W-60W HAMPERING THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W. PRONOUNCED UPPER
HIGH RIDGING IS FROM 9N27W TO 28N30W.. MUCH FARTHER N THAN
AVERAGE...SPREADING PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE E ATLC
ESPECIALLY W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  UPPER TROUGHING REMAIN IN THE
FAR NE ATLC FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER N AFRICA WITH A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RIDING EASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWARD
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W.

$$
FORMOSA


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