[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051808 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT.  THIS IS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE AND A LOW-CONFIDENCE WAVE
POSITION DUE TO A NEARBY UPPER LOW MASKING THE WAVE'S
SIGNATURE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 7N-21N BETWEEN 45W-50W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM CLUSTER FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 51W-56W IS THE REAL TROPICAL WAVE BUT AVAILABLE
DATA IS AMBIGUOUS.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  ANY EFFECTS FROM THIS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ARE CONFINED NEAR
THE S AMERICAN COAST S OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-70W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THRU THE AREA... INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 12.5N-16N
BETWEEN 81W-85W IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE... WHICH IS HARD TO
SEPARATE FROM THE CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN.  A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NEAR NEAR 13N84W AND
PROBABLY IS CLOSE TO THE WAVE AXIS.  TSTMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 17.5N-20N BETWEEN 84W-87W ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 3N30W 8.5N48W 10N61W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 25W-31W AND WITHIN 100 NM
OF 4N21W.  SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 7.5N-10.5N BETWEEN 51W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA INTO NE
MEXICO.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE THE RULE THICKEST IN THE SW
GULF AND NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  DEEP SLY WINDS ARE BRINGING
WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY W OF 86W WITH NEAR RECORD
HEAT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN US.  OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.  OTHERWISE... MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SE GULF WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT S
OF 26N.  WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO GEORGIA.
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF OVER YUCATAN.. THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE SW GULF
LATE SUN AND MEXICO BY MON WITH EVEN S TEXAS AT RISK FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON MON.  NO FRONTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON UNTIL LATE WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

CARIBBEAN...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DIVIDED BY RATHER MOIST/UNSETTLED CONDITIONS W
OF 77W WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS QUITE DRY.  A COMBINATION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE... ITCZ MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM A HIGH
NEAR 14N80W CONTINUES TO BRING ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF
77W.  THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE NE TIP OF HONDURAS.. AND
IN A SEPARATE TSTMS AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF 19N86W.  MID/UPPER
HIGH NEAR 19N65W IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD... BRINGING VERY DRY
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 76W.  THE ONLY
PLACE WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO PRODUCE TSTMS IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF S AMERICA E OF 72W... HELPED BY AN
UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A WAVE. COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY MON... ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SW AND SE CARIBBEAN.  LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN
SEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF TRINIDAD SHOULD CAUSE A
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARDS S OF
BARBADOS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE LIKELY INTO MON.

ATLANTIC...
W TO WSW WINDS COVER THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE W ATLC... WITH
WEAK TROUGHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS.  LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM 30N70W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS..
MOSTLY JUST A POSITION FOR A BROAD WIND SHIFT OCCURRING WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE AXIS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS BUT HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING.  THE STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 31N55W TO 30N64W IS DISSIPATING BUT A LITTLE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE JUST E OF BERMUDA SEEMS TO BE
FLARING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN
55W-65W.  MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR 19N65W NE
TO 27N52W THEN 31N38W.  CUTOFF LOW NEAR 19N45W IS JUST SPINNING
IN PLACE DUE TO THE RIDGING TO THE N.  ISOLATED COLD-AIR
INSTABILITY TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER WITH
LARGER SCALE LIFT/DIVERGENCE ASSISTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 34W-41W.  PRONOUNCED UPPER
HIGH RIDGING IS FROM 9N27W TO 28N30W.. MUCH FARTHER N THAN
AVERAGE...SPREADING PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE E ATLC
ESPECIALLY W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  UPPER TROUGHING REMAIN IN THE
FAR NE ATLC FROM A LOW OVER N AFRICA WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
RIDING EASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE E ATLC NEAR 31N29W.  THIS LOW IS ONLY CAUSING A SMALL
ENHANCED TO CLOUDS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.   AT THE SURFACE... 1030 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN
THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ENTERING THE
NEAR NEAR 31N40W TO 30N54W.  AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE STRENGTH
TRADES ARE BLOWING THRU THE REGION...A PATTERN RARELY SEEN SO
FAR THIS YEAR.

$$
BLAKE


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