[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 19N45W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N
TO 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE LOW CENTER
THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE AREA OF CELLS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
63W AND 65W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 9N
TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND 69W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 25 TO 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N77W 13N79W 13.5N81.5W
14N84W...CURVING FROM THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA
TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N13W 6N20W 5N26W 8N37W 8N46W 8N54W 6N59W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 52W AND
53.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO
THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W...AND FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 32W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN
33W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
20N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SEEN IN HIGH CLOUD
MOVEMENTS...AND IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM
05/0900 UTC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE
GULF SOUTH OF 26N97W 27N89W 30N82W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IN THE 05/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA...IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...NORTH OF 23N80W
26N70W BEYOND 32N63W. DRY AIR ALSO IS SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W...AND SOUTH OF 23N60W 27N50W. HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SOUTH OF 23N80W 26N70W...NORTH OF 23N60W 27N50W...AND NORTH
OF 28N50W 31N41W. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1022 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 33N51W TO 30N60W TO 29N70W TO 28N73W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N75W NEAR CUBA TO 24N68W 27N65W
29N59W 32N54W 33N49W 35N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N67W
26N63W 30N45W TO AN ATLANTIC 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
37N20W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 19N45W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 9N TO 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 11N76W 15N80W 21N80W...WITH
THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N87W
NEAR COZUMEL TO 18N88W TO 16N88W IN WESTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO JUST EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT


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