[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050615
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 19N46W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N
TO 21N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE LOW CENTER
THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 16N
BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. ONE CELL OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 6N20W 4N25W 9N40W 9N45W 7N50W 8N54W 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N
TO 10N EAST OF 30W...AND FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
20N. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SEEN IN HIGH CLOUD MOVEMENTS.
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 05/0300 UTC WHICH SHOWS
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF...
EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN-TO-NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 75W AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IN THE 05/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA...IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM NORTHWEST
OF 23N80W 26N70W 30N66W 32N65W 34N60W. HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...
AND WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM NORTH OF 24N60W 28N50W...AND WITHIN
300 TO 400 NM NORTH OF 28N50W 30N40W AND 33N33W. A SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 33N51W
TO 29N60W TO 30N68W TO 29N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W
25N71W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND OTHER SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N70W
29N63W THROUGH 32N58W TO 33N50W BEYOND 35N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG 24N61W 28N50W TO 33N38W TO AN ATLANTIC 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N19W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO
IS FOUND FROM 11N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 19N46W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 9N
TO 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 15N WITH THE 81W/82W
TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 15N WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N87W NEAR COZUMEL TO 18N88W TO 16N88W
IN WESTERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net