[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS MASKING ANY CLEAR WAVE SIGNATURE.
HOWEVER THIS SAME UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15 KT.  WEAK MID-LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES CLOSE TO TRINIDAD.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF BARBADOS INTO
S AMERICA NEAR 9N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.
BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF
15N BETWEEN 76W AND NICARAGUA AIDED BY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
DIFLUENT CONDITIONS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 8N35W 11N58W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 3.5N-9N BETWEEN 20W-23W.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 13.5N-16W AND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM NE FLORIDA INTO NE MEXICO.  PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS ARE
LINGERING IN OPEN WATERS ESPECIALLY W OF 85W.  SLY WINDS ARE
BRINGING RETURN FLOW MOISTURE INTO THE SE USA W OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOTED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.  IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SO THE
BIGGEST WEATHER STORY WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO YUCATAN OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS
MOISTURE IS MOSTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR NOW BUT SHOULD MIGRATE
WESTWARD WITH TIME... OVERSPREADING YUCATAN BY LATE SAT AND THE
SW GULF LATE SUN.  OVERCAST SKIES PLUS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS ARE THE MAIN WEATHER TO BE EXPECTED.  IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 500 MB.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK TROUGH FROM A DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM NEAR
20N83.5W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AND IS SERVING AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF 84W S OF 21N
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.  OTHERWISE THE TRADES HAVE PICKED UP TO
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS WITH A MORE
WINTERTIME REGIME TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF.  A COMBINATION OF
THE ITCZ AND A WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS LEAVING THAT AREA
UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS DON'T
APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY ELY WINDS REMAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG HIGH N OF THE AREA.  VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS OVERSPREAD
ALL OF THE E CARIBBEAN SAVE THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  IT
APPEARS THAT LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE THE RULE OUTSIDE
OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVES AS LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIMITS MOST
TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH IS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA FROM 31N67W
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N60W TO 30N67W DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO 25N73W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 60W70W.
THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WILL SLOW TRACK WESTWARD...
MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE W ATLC.  MID/UPPER HIGH SITS NEAR 20N64W BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN THE ATLC FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 50W-70W...
SAVE NEAR A WEAK TROUGH NW OF PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 25N69W 20N70W.  A CUT-OFF LOW IS
NEAR 19N44W ... MOVING VERY SLOWLY AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 30N
IN THE E ATLC.  TROUGHING FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ITCZ
AND WAVE CONVECTION E OF 47W.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THRU
THE FAR NE ATLC PASSING SE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.  OTHERWISE IN
THE TROPICAL E ATLC...MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES S OF 22N E OF
40W.  AT THE SURFACE... 1033 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N21W RIDGING WSW INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N39W 28N60W.  AVERAGE
TRADES COVER THE REGION.

$$
BLAKE


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