[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 18N45W. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS
NEAR THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR
ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. ONE MASS OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...AND SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
URABA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 9N13W 6N20W 8N30W 10N35W 9N40W 9N50W 9N56W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN
29W AND 40W...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 04/0900 UTC SHOWS MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL LOW CENTER
NEAR 29N72W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE LINE
THROUGH 32N65W 26N70W 22N80W SEPARATES DRY AIR FROM MOIST AIR.
DRY AIR IS WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE
WEST OF 70W...AND WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS
LINE EAST OF 70W. MOIST AIR IS WITHIN 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE WEST OF 70W AND WITHIN 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE WEST
OF 70W. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N52W 30N60W 30N70W
27N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 27N70W TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR THE
THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS SOUTH OF 29N50W
27N60W 23N70W WEST OF 50W...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 18N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N
TO 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE 18N45W LOW CENTER. A RIDGE IS ALONG 30W FROM 10N TO
24N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LITTLE BIT OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W SPILLS
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...MOSTLY NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE
WIND DIRECTION ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W APPEARS TO BE
EASTERLY IN THE 04/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...
AND ALSO IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY SEPARATE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE IS WEST OF 80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 76W...CLOSE TO THE
79W/80W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
INTERIOR EASTERN HONDURAS TOWARD WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF 20N80W 16N84W.

$$
MT



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