[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031704
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 13N MOVING W 15
KT.  THIS IS A MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS POSITION WELL
TO THE E AND ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AROUND 45W.  IT IS
GETTING VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE WAVES AS THEY ARE QUITE LOW
AMPLITUDE AND DO NOT HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY.  THIS POSITION ALSO
AGREES WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ON THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS WITH OTHER SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N36W.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 54W/55W
S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DECENT
TURNING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM
10N-12.5N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ADJUSTED TO 75W S OF 14N MOVING
W 15-20 KT.  LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGES STRONGLY SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN A TROUGH
IT SPAWNED... CURRENTLY NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE.  ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W HAS LEFT THE AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 6N20W 8N40W 11N53W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-41W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 32W-37W.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SW GULF.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE IN OPEN WATER... THOUGH ARE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS.  PATCHY
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OTHERWISE...SLY WINDS ARE RETURNING IN THE W GULF WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING.  THESE SLYS SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE
GULF BY THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT PENETRATING THE REGION
NEAR SUNDAY.  IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING COVERS THE GULF
WITH VERY DRY AIR LIMITING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED INTO A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM S CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W... AIDED BY A SMALL AMOUNT OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE.  ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SAN ANDRES AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 80W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 70W...
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER IS PLEASANT.  THERE ARE PLENTY OF
TRADEWIND SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... DECREASING IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO
23N68W.  THIS RAIN AREA IS N OF 17N TO 23N BETWEEN THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  TOMORROW SHOULD BE A DRIER
DAY AS MOISTURE DROPS CONSIDERABLY UPSTREAM OF THE PUERTO RICO
AREA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE USA AND BERMUDA FROM
32N69W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES
FROM 31N61W E OF BERMUDA TO 25N70W THEN STATIONARY INTO THE SE
BAHAMAS THEN NEAR THE SE TIP OF CUBA.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS
WEAKENING WITH TIME.. ONLY CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONTS.  MID/UPPER HIGH SITS NEAR 23N59W BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN THE ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN 50W-65W... SAVE
NEAR A WEAK TROUGH W OF PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN
120 NM OF 21N66W.  DEEP-LAYERED ELY WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
HIGH... WHICH IS RARE FOR NOVEMBER.  MID/UPPER LOW IS DIGGING
NEAR 22N44W AND WILL LIKELY CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE SUBTROPICS.  TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD TO 9N44W AND DEMARCATES MUCH HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE E ATLC WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE W
ATLC.   UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 10N27W IN THE E ATLC WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE ITCZ ASSISTING PLENTY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  IN
GENERAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE
DEEP TROPICAL ATLC... THOUGH EVEN MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE IS TOO
STRONG TO SUPPORT ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE TROPICAL WAVES
ACROSS THE ATLC ARE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE SEASONS
CHANGE.

$$
BLAKE

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