[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT.
THIS IS A WEAK...LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ S OF 10N.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY UPPER AIR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 53W/54W
S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
9N46W-12N53W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT.
EXCELLENT WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 64W-67W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE IS S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WITH ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT/TROUGH FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N20W 7N38W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 17W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED
FROM E TEXAS NE TO VIRGINIA. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC COMPLETELY CLEARING THE GULF
OF SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA ALTHOUGH PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
AND BE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL TROUGH SKITS THE N GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS RETURN
FLOW OVER THE W GULF WILL BEGIN TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER
S GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM E CUBA SW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THEN S TO HONDURAS.
THIS FRONT/TROUGH IS KEEPING THE MOISTURE S OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND INTERACTING THE THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W TO
GENERATE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. UPPER LOW IS
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING N TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER PANAMA NEAR
9N89W TO 14N75W THEN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 14N75W-17N67W. UPPER
HIGH NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS IS DRYING OUT THE NE
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES E OF 67W.
CLEARING AND LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR W
WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST TO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
WITH A WEAK SW JET EXTENDING FROM THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO
BEYOND 32N66W. A COLD FRONT LIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
32N62W ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN
57W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21.5N75W. LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
23N60W BRINGING THE DRIER AIR TO THE E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL
ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SW FROM THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N28W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N33W TO A SMALL UPPER
LOW NEAR 25N41W TO 14N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS ALONG 30N21W TO 28N26W. REMNANT MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF A LINE FROM 20N44W 30N31W TO BEYOND 32N20W INCLUDING THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N25W NE OVER AFRICA NEAR 21N17W TO BEYOND 32N5W WITH
A WEAK JET EXTENDING ALONG 15N36W JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N23W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 17N16W. THIS IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE N ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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