[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WEAK WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
BEING DRAWN N OF THE ITCZ DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ...MAINLY S OF 10N.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WEAK WAVE IS AT THE EDGE OF DRY UPPER AIR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 52W/53W
S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 21N MOVING W
10-15 KT. EXCELLENT WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62.5W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
21N66W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 83W S OF 16N. WAVE
HAD BEEN EXTREMELY HAD TO TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THUS
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF THE FRONT...S OF 17N...W OF 80W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N26W 4N41W...BECOMING
DIFFUSED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-11N
FROM 10W-40W INCLUDING THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN ACROSS THE GULF
ANCHORED FROM E TEXAS NE TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CAROLINAS.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E U.S. INTO THE W
ATLC FORCING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN...
THUS COMPLETELY CLEARING THE GULF OF SHOWERS. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STILL PRODUCING PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND RETURN FLOW OVER THE
W GULF WILL BEGIN TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA SW
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THEN S TO HONDURAS. THIS FRONT IS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE S OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTERACTING
THE THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 83W TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 19N. UPPER LOW IS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING N TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STREAMING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N74W-12N78W.
UPPER HIGH NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS IS DRYING OUT THE NE
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CLEARING SKIES E OF 67W.
CLEARING AND LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT IN THE FAR W WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST TO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
WITH A 80-90 KT SW JET EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO
BEYOND 32N70W. A COLD FRONT LIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
32N67W ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN
63W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 21N75.5W. LARGE UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 23N63W
BRINGING THE DRIER AIR TO THE E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC.
A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S FROM THE E ATLC NEAR
32N28W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N36W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW NEAR 24N43W TO 17N50W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE MADEIRA ISLAND ALONG 30N23W 22N47W TO
30N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180/200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
TO 37W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
13N23W NNE TO BEYOND 32N9W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE N ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net