[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 32W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ...MAINLY
S OF 10N.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF
DISORGANIZED TSTMS S OF 10N...MORE OR LESS NEAR THE ITCZ. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 550 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
51W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 46W-55W.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE INDICATE
THAT A WELL-DEFINED WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
65W/66W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO
THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO THE
ABC ISLANDS.

WEST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL ROTATION IS LOCATED
FARTHER W OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
80W-85W INCLUDING ALONG THE NICARAGUAN AND COSTA RICA COASTS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 3S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 14W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SEWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
STRONG HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN ACROSS THE AREA...ANCHORED FROM E
TEXAS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FRONT HAS BEEN FORCED BY A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST WHICH THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM S/CNTRL FLORIDA
TO THE SW GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER THE AREA
ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL PRODUCING PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS S OF 28N AND STRATUS/DRIZZLE OVER SE MEXICO E OF
97W. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AND RETURN
FLOW OVER THE W GULF WILL BEGIN TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD
OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CNTRL
CUBA...W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THEN SW TO HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W...INCLUDING MOVING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS
BEING OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED ACROSS HONDURAS. A WEAK UPPER LOW
IS LOCATED OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N73W WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N TOWARDS SE CUBA. A NORTHERLY UPPER
JET ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW IS EVACUATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. FARTHER E...DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW MOVING
IN FROM THE ATLC IS ADVECTING DRY AIR ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH CLEARING SKIES E OF 65W.

ATLANTIC...
A MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
WITH A 70-80 KT SWLY JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEWD TO
32N73W. A COLD FRONT LIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 32N69W ACROSS
THE S/CNTRL BAHAMAS TO 21N78W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 66W-73W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LIES ALONG 32N73W 25N77W 23N80W BUT THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING AND
THE EASTERN FRONT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY. A LARGE
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 23N62W WITH
AN ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE LYING ALONG 26N60W 23N74W. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING SWD OVER THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 30N38W 22N48W
WITH A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N28W 22N48W 28N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT E OF
45W. AN UPPER RIDGE LIES ALONG 11N E OF 38W AND IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
NEAR THE ITCZ...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18W-42W.

$$
BERG


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