[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM W OF AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 9N TO 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT BUT THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS MASKED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
16N74W. SCATTERED MODERATED AND OCCASIONAL STRONG CONVECTION IS
FLARING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
WEAKENING WITH TIME.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N24W 1N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF
THE AXIS E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
32N82W 16N95W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND RESULTANT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...A SECONDARY FRONT IS MOVING SE THROUGH THE EXTREME SE
WATERS ATTM WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS NOTED NW OF THIS
BOUNDARY...EXCEPT FOR CLEARING OVER THE NW WATERS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE TEXAS/OLD MEXICO BORDER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N82W. AN UPPER
CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N74W AND IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. AN UPPER TROUGH SEPARATES THESE TWO
SYSTEMS AND LIES ALONG 21N76W 13N77W. UPPER DRY AIR IS SPREADING
SE OVER THE NW PORTION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE
PORTION AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. UPPER DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CURRENTLY
IN A WARMING TREND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N62W WITH ITS ENVELOPE
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REGION 75W AND 55W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS SHIFTING SE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...A COUPLE OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS W OF 73W WITH CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE FRONTS N OF
27N. DRY UPPER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOTED NW OF LINE
24N80W 31N76W.

THE CENTRAL PORTION E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MEAN AXIS N TO S ALONG 47W AND SHIFTING E
WITH TIME. A SURFACE FRONT LIES ALONG 32N22W 23N50W 32N65W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
31N25W 26N37W 23N45W. DRY UPPER AIR INS NOTED NW OF THIS
MOISTURE BAND AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N22W
17N40W 22N66W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OF W AFRICA ALONG 22N15W TO 10N35W
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR N OF THE ITCZ AND SE OF THE
MOISTURE BAND DESCRIBED ABOVE.

$$
NELSON


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